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Systematic review highlights high risk of bias of clinical prediction models for blood transfusion in patients undergoing elective surgery
Dhiman P, Ma J, Gibbs VN, Rampotas A, Kamal H, Arshad SS, Kirtley S, Doree C, Murphy MF, Collins GS, et al
Journal of clinical epidemiology. 2023
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Abstract
BACKGROUND Blood transfusion can be a lifesaving intervention after perioperative blood loss. Many prediction models have been developed to identify patients most likely to require blood transfusion during elective surgery, but it is unclear whether any are suitable for clinical practice. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING We conducted a systematic review, searching MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, The Cochrane Library, Transfusion Evidence Library, Scopus, and Web of Science databases for studies reporting the development or validation of a blood transfusion prediction model in elective surgery patients between 01/01/2000 to 30/06/2021. We extracted study characteristics, discrimination performance (c-statistics) of final models and data which we used to perform risk of bias assessment using the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST). RESULTS We reviewed 66 studies (72 developed and 48 externally validated models). Pooled c-statistics of externally validated models ranged from 0.67 to 0.78. Most developed and validated models were at high risk of bias due to handling of predictors, validation methods, and too small sample sizes. CONCLUSION Most blood transfusion prediction models are at high risk of bias and suffer from poor reporting and methodological quality, which must be addressed before they can be safely used in clinical practice.
PICO Summary
Population
Patients undergoing elective surgery (66 studies).
Intervention
Blood transfusion prediction models used perioperatively.
Comparison
Outcome
This systematic review appraised 120 prediction models developed or validated for predicting blood transfusion in elective surgery (72 developed and 48 externally validated models). Pooled c-statistics of externally validated models ranged from 0.67 to 0.78. Most developed and validated models were at high risk of bias due to handling of predictors, validation methods, and too small sample sizes.
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Patient Blood Management: Recommendations From the 2018 Frankfurt Consensus Conference
Mueller MM, Van Remoortel H, Meybohm P, Aranko K, Aubron C, Burger R, Carson JL, Cichutek K, De Buck E, Devine D, et al
Jama. 2019;321(10):983-997
Abstract
Importance: Blood transfusion is one of the most frequently used therapies worldwide and is associated with benefits, risks, and costs. Objective: To develop a set of evidence-based recommendations for patient blood management (PBM) and for research. Evidence Review: The scientific committee developed 17 Population/Intervention/Comparison/Outcome (PICO) questions for red blood cell (RBC) transfusion in adult patients in 3 areas: preoperative anemia (3 questions), RBC transfusion thresholds (11 questions), and implementation of PBM programs (3 questions). These questions guided the literature search in 4 biomedical databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, Transfusion Evidence Library), searched from inception to January 2018. Meta-analyses were conducted with the GRADE (Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation) methodology and the Evidence-to-Decision framework by 3 panels including clinical and scientific experts, nurses, patient representatives, and methodologists, to develop clinical recommendations during a consensus conference in Frankfurt/Main, Germany, in April 2018. Findings: From 17607 literature citations associated with the 17 PICO questions, 145 studies, including 63 randomized clinical trials with 23143 patients and 82 observational studies with more than 4 million patients, were analyzed. For preoperative anemia, 4 clinical and 3 research recommendations were developed, including the strong recommendation to detect and manage anemia sufficiently early before major elective surgery. For RBC transfusion thresholds, 4 clinical and 6 research recommendations were developed, including 2 strong clinical recommendations for critically ill but clinically stable intensive care patients with or without septic shock (recommended threshold for RBC transfusion, hemoglobin concentration <7 g/dL) as well as for patients undergoing cardiac surgery (recommended threshold for RBC transfusion, hemoglobin concentration <7.5 g/dL). For implementation of PBM programs, 2 clinical and 3 research recommendations were developed, including recommendations to implement comprehensive PBM programs and to use electronic decision support systems (both conditional recommendations) to improve appropriate RBC utilization. Conclusions and Relevance: The 2018 PBM International Consensus Conference defined the current status of the PBM evidence base for practice and research purposes and established 10 clinical recommendations and 12 research recommendations for preoperative anemia, RBC transfusion thresholds for adults, and implementation of PBM programs. The relative paucity of strong evidence to answer many of the PICO questions supports the need for additional research and an international consensus for accepted definitions and hemoglobin thresholds, as well as clinically meaningful end points for multicenter trials.
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Red blood cell transfusion for people undergoing hip fracture surgery
Brunskill SJ, Millette SL, Shokoohi A, Pulford EC, Doree C, Murphy MF, Stanworth S
Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. 2015;((4))
Abstract
BACKGROUND The incidence of hip fracture is increasing and it is more common with increasing age. Surgery is used for almost all hip fractures. Blood loss occurs as a consequence of both the fracture and the surgery and thus red blood cell transfusion is frequently used. However, red blood cell transfusion is not without risks. Therefore, it is important to identify the evidence for the effective and safe use of red blood cell transfusion in people with hip fracture. OBJECTIVES To assess the effects (benefits and harms) of red blood cell transfusion in people undergoing surgery for hip fracture. SEARCH METHODS We searched the Cochrane Bone, Joint and Muscle Trauma Group Specialised Register (31 October 2014), the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (The Cochrane Library, 2014, Issue 10), MEDLINE (January 1946 to 20 November 2014), EMBASE (January 1974 to 20 November 2014), CINAHL (January 1982 to 20 November 2014), British Nursing Index Database (January 1992 to 20 November 2014), the Systematic Review Initiative's Transfusion Evidence Library, PubMed for e-publications, various other databases and ongoing trial registers. SELECTION CRITERIA Randomised controlled trials comparing red blood cell transfusion versus no transfusion or an alternative to transfusion, different transfusion protocols or different transfusion thresholds in people undergoing surgery for hip fracture. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS Three review authors independently assessed each study's risk of bias and extracted data using a study-specific form. We pooled data where there was homogeneity in the trial comparisons and the timing of outcome measurement. We used GRADE criteria to assess the quality (low, moderate or high) of the evidence for each outcome. MAIN RESULTS We included six trials (2722 participants): all compared two thresholds for red blood cell transfusion: a 'liberal' strategy to maintain a haemoglobin concentration of usually 10 g/dL versus a more 'restrictive' strategy based on symptoms of anaemia or a lower haemoglobin concentration, usually 8 g/dL. The exact nature of the transfusion interventions, types of surgery and participants varied between trials. The mean age of participants ranged from 81 to 87 years and approximately 24% of participants were men. The largest trial enrolled 2016 participants, over 60% of whom had a history of cardiovascular disease. The percentage of participants receiving a red blood cell transfusion ranged from 74% to 100% in the liberal transfusion threshold group and from 11% to 45% in the restrictive transfusion threshold group. There were no results available for the smallest trial (18 participants). All studies were at some risk of bias, in particular performance bias relating to the absence of blinding of personnel. We judged the evidence for all outcomes, except myocardial infarction, was low quality reflecting risk of bias primarily from imbalances in protocol violations in the largest trial and imprecision, often because of insufficient events. Thus, further research is likely to have an important impact on these results.There was no evidence of a difference between a liberal versus restricted threshold transfusion in mortality, at 30 days post hip fracture surgery (risk ratio (RR) 0.92, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.67 to 1.26; five trials; 2683 participants; low quality evidence) or at 60 days post surgery (RR 1.08, 95% CI 0.80 to 1.44; three trials; 2283 participants; low quality evidence). Assuming an illustrative baseline risk of 50 deaths per 1000 participants in the restricted threshold group at 30 days, these data equate to four fewer (95% CI 17 fewer to 14 more) deaths per 1000 in the liberal threshold group at 30 days.There was no evidence of a difference between a liberal versus restricted threshold transfusion in functional recovery at 60 days, assessed in terms of the inability to walk 10 feet (3 m) without human assistance (RR 1.00, 95% CI 0.87 to 1.15; two trials; 2083 participants; low quality evidence).There was low quality evidence of no difference betwe
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Red cell transfusion management for patients undergoing cardiac surgery for congenital heart disease
Wilkinson KL, Brunskill SJ, Doree C, Trivella M, Gill R, Murphy MF
Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. 2014;2:CD009752.
Abstract
BACKGROUND Congenital heart disease is the most commonly diagnosed neonatal congenital condition. Without surgery, only 30% to 40% of patients affected will survive to 10 years old. Mortality has fallen since the 1990s with 2006 to 2007 figures showing surgical survival at one year of 95%. Patients with congenital heart disease are potentially exposed to red cell transfusion at many points in the surgical pathway. There are a number of risks associated with red cell transfusion that may be translated into increased patient morbidity and mortality. OBJECTIVES To evaluate the effects of red cell transfusion on mortality and morbidity on patients with congenital heart disease at the time of cardiac surgery. SEARCH METHODS We searched 11 bibliographic databases and three ongoing trials databases including the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (Issue 5, 2013), MEDLINE (Ovid, 1950 to 11 June 2013), EMBASE (Ovid, 1980 to 11 June 2013), ClinicalTrials.gov, World Health Organization (WHO) ICTRP and the ISRCTN Register (to June 2013). We also searched references of all identified trials, relevant review articles and abstracts from between 2006 and 2010 of the most relevant conferences. We did not limit the searches by language of publication. SELECTION CRITERIA We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing red cell transfusion interventions in patients undergoing cardiac surgery for congenital heart disease. We included participants of any age (neonates, paediatrics and adults) and with any type of congenital heart disease (cyanotic or acyanotic). We excluded patients with congenital heart disease undergoing non-cardiac surgery. No co-morbidities were excluded. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS Two review authors independently assessed trial quality and extracted data. We contacted study authors for additional information. MAIN RESULTS We identified 11 trials (862 participants). All trials were in neonatal or paediatric populations. The trials covered only three areas of interest: restrictive versus liberal transfusion triggers (two trials), leukoreduction versus non-leukoreduction (two trials) and standard versus non-standard cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) prime (seven trials). Owing to the clinical diversity in the participant groups (cyanotic (three trials), acyanotic (four trials) or mixed (four trials)) and the intervention groups, it was not appropriate to pool data in a meta-analysis. No study reported data for all the outcomes of interest to this review. Risk of bias was mixed across the included trials, with only attrition bias being low across all trials. Blinding of study personnel and participants was not always possible, depending on the intervention being used.Five trials (628 participants) reported the primary outcome: 30-day mortality. In three trials (a trial evaluating restrictive and liberal transfusion (125 participants), a trial of cell salvage during CPB (309 participants) and a trial of washed red blood cells during CPB (128 participants)), there was no clear difference in mortality at 30 days between the intervention arms. In two trials comparing standard and non-standard CPB prime, there were no deaths in either randomised group. Long-term mortality was similar between randomised groups in one trial each comparing restrictive and liberal transfusion or standard and non-standard CPB prime.Four trials explored a range of adverse effects following red cell transfusion. Kidney failure was the only adverse event that was significantly different: patients receiving cell salvaged red blood cells during CPB were less likely to have renal failure than patients not exposed to cell salvage (risk ratio (RR) 0.26, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.09 to 0.79, 1 study, 309 participants). There was insufficient evidence to determine whether there was a difference between transfusion strategies for any other severe adverse events.The duration of mechanical ventilation was measured in seven trials (768 participants). Overall, there was no consistent difference in the duration of mechanica
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The role of prophylactic fresh frozen plasma in decreasing blood loss and correcting coagulopathy in cardiac surgery. A systematic review
Casbard AC, Williamson LM, Murphy MF, Rege K, Johnson T
Anaesthesia. 2004;59((6):):550-8.
Abstract
Summary: Fresh frozen plasma is commonly used in cardiac surgery in an attempt to replace clotting factors and to decrease bleeding. Despite this, there has been no previous review of the available literature to support this practice. The aim of this review was to study the effect of prophylactic peri-operative transfusion of fresh frozen plasma on bleeding and coagulopathy in patients undergoing cardiac surgery. A comprehensive literature search was performed and all randomised controlled trials of the use of fresh frozen plasma in cardiac surgery were included. Six small trials were found that included a total of 363 participants with six different dose regimens of fresh frozen plasma. The overall quality of the studies was poor due to small patient numbers and lack of allocation concealment. There was no evidence that the prophylactic use of fresh frozen plasma affected peri-operative blood loss in cardiac surgery. There was some evidence that it may improve platelet count and fibrinogen concentration.