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A new nomogram for individualized prediction of the probability of hemorrhagic transformation after intravenous thrombolysis for ischemic stroke patients
Wu Y, Chen H, Liu X, Cai X, Kong Y, Wang H, Zhou Y, Zhu J, Zhang L, Fang Q, et al
BMC neurology. 2020;20(1):426
Abstract
BACKGROUND A reliable scoring tool to detect the risk of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) after intravenous thrombolysis for ischemic stroke is warranted. The present study was designed to develop and validate a new nomogram for individualized prediction of the probability of hemorrhagic transformation (HT) in patients treated with intravenous (IV) recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (rt-PA). METHODS We enrolled patients who suffered from acute ischemic stroke (AIS) with IV rt-PA treatment in our emergency green channel between August 2016 and July 2018. The main outcome was defined as any type of intracerebral hemorrhage according to the European Cooperative Acute Stroke Study II (ECASS II). All patients were randomly divided into two cohorts: the primary cohort and the validation cohort. On the basis of multivariate logistic model, the predictive nomogram was generated. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated by Harrell's concordance index (C-index) and calibration plot. RESULTS A total of 194 patients with complete data were enrolled, of whom 131 comprised the primary cohort and 63 comprised the validation cohort, with HT rate 12.2, 9.5% respectively. The score of chronic disease scale (CDS), the global burden of cerebral small vascular disease (CSVD), National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score ≥ 13, and onset-to-treatment time (OTT) ≥ 180 were detected important determinants of ICH and included to construct the nomogram. The nomogram derived from the primary cohort for HT had C- Statistics of 0.9562 and the calibration plot revealed generally fit in predicting the risk of HT. Furthermore, we made a comparison between our new nomogram and several other risk-assessed scales for HT with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, and the results showed the nomogram model gave an area under curve of 0.9562 (95%CI, 0.9221-0.9904, P < 0.01) greater than HAT (Hemorrhage After Thrombolysis), SEDAN (blood Sugar, Early infarct and hyper Dense cerebral artery sign on non-contrast computed tomography, Age, and NIHSS) and SPAN-100 (Stroke Prognostication using Age and NIHSS) scores. CONCLUSIONS This proposed nomogram based on the score of CDS, the global burden of CSVD, NIHSS score ≥ 13, and OTT ≥ 180 gives rise to a more accurate and more comprehensive prediction for HT in patients with ischemic stroke receiving IV rt-PA treatment.
2.
Characterizing red blood cell age exposure in massive transfusion therapy: the scalar age of blood index (SBI)
DeSantis SM, Brown DW, Jones AR, Yamal JM, Pittet JF, Patel RP, Wade CE, Holcomb JB, Wang H
Transfusion. 2019
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Abstract
BACKGROUND The mortality of trauma patients requiring massive transfusion to treat hemorrhagic shock approaches 17% at 24 hours and 26% at 30 days. The use of stored RBCs is limited to less than 42 days, so older RBCs are delivered first to rapidly bleeding trauma patients. Patients who receive a greater quantity of older RBCs may have a higher risk for mortality. METHODS AND MATERIALS Characterizing blood age exposure requires accounting for the age of each RBC unit and the quantity of transfused units. To address this challenge, a novel Scalar Age of Blood Index (SBI) that represents the relative distribution of RBCs received is introduced and applied to a secondary analysis of the Pragmatic, Randomized Optimal Platelet and Plasma Ratios (PROPPR) randomized controlled trial (NCT01545232, https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01545232). The effect of the SBI is assessed on the primary PROPPR outcome, 24-hour and 30-day mortality. RESULTS The distributions of blood storage ages successfully maps to a parameter (SBI) that fully defines the blood age curve for each patient. SBI was a significant predictor of 24-hour and 30-day mortality in an adjusted model that had strong predictive ability (odds ratio, 1.15 [1.01-1.29], p = 0.029, C-statistic, 0.81; odds ratio, 1.14 [1.02-1.28], p = 0.019, C-statistic, 0.88, respectively). CONCLUSION SBI is a simple scalar metric of blood age that accounts for the relative distribution of RBCs among age categories. Transfusion of older RBCs is associated with 24-hour and 30-day mortality, after adjustment for total units and clinical covariates.